--- title: Fewer Homes Are Coming on the Market. So Why Is Inventory Still Rising? description: Northern Virginia new listings are close to last year, contracts are down 21% and inventory is up 42%. What the national and local data show for sellers. image: https://www.davidzadareky.com/hubfs/post_fewer-homes-inventory-rising.png --- [Skip to the main content.](https://www.davidzadareky.com/insights/fewer-homes-are-coming-on-the-market.-so-why-is-inventory-still-rising#main-content) [![David-Zadareky-White-Logo-588x164](https://www.davidzadareky.com/hubfs/David-Zadareky-White-Logo-588x164.svg "David-Zadareky-White-Logo-588x164")](https://davidzadareky.com) [![David-Zadareky-Black-Logo-588x164](https://www.davidzadareky.com/hubfs/David-Zadareky-Black-Logo-588x164.svg "David-Zadareky-Black-Logo-588x164")](https://davidzadareky.com) - [Home](https://www.davidzadareky.com) - Who I Help - [Rightsizing](https://www.davidzadareky.com/rightsizing) - [Retirement](https://www.davidzadareky.com/retirement) - [Helping a Parent](https://www.davidzadareky.com/helping-a-parent) - [Estate Sales](https://www.davidzadareky.com/estate-sales) - Services - [Selling and Buying](https://www.davidzadareky.com/services) - [Market Calibration](https://www.davidzadareky.com/market-calibration) - [Home Audit](https://www.davidzadareky.com/home-audit) - [On-MLS vs Off-MLS](https://www.davidzadareky.com/on-mls-vs-off-mls) - [Insights](https://www.davidzadareky.com/insights) - [Deep Dives](https://www.davidzadareky.com/deep-dives) - [Contact](https://www.davidzadareky.com/contact) Search Toggle Menu Search Toggle Menu - [Home](https://www.davidzadareky.com) - Who I Help - [Rightsizing](https://www.davidzadareky.com/rightsizing) - [Retirement](https://www.davidzadareky.com/retirement) - [Helping a Parent](https://www.davidzadareky.com/helping-a-parent) - [Estate Sales](https://www.davidzadareky.com/estate-sales) - Services - [Selling and Buying](https://www.davidzadareky.com/services) - [Market Calibration](https://www.davidzadareky.com/market-calibration) - [Home Audit](https://www.davidzadareky.com/home-audit) - [On-MLS vs Off-MLS](https://www.davidzadareky.com/on-mls-vs-off-mls) - [Insights](https://www.davidzadareky.com/insights) - [Deep Dives](https://www.davidzadareky.com/deep-dives) - [Contact](https://www.davidzadareky.com/contact) [Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/davidzadarekycompass/) [Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/davidzadarekycompass/) [Linkedin](https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidzadareky) [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/@david.zadareky.compass/featured) 6 min read # Fewer Homes Are Coming on the Market. So Why Is Inventory Still Rising? [David Zadareky](https://www.davidzadareky.com/insights/author/david-zadareky) : Published November 14, 2026 [Market Update](https://www.davidzadareky.com/insights/tag/market-update) ![Fewer Homes Are Coming on the Market. So Why Is Inventory Still Rising?](https://www.davidzadareky.com/hs-fs/hubfs/post_fewer-homes-inventory-rising.png?width=1200&height=630&name=post_fewer-homes-inventory-rising.png) Fewer homeowners are putting their homes up for sale, yet the number of homes available to buyers keeps growing. Nationally, Realtor.com's weekly housing report for the week ending November 7 showed new listings down 10.3% from the same week last year. Active inventory rose 8.3%. Northern Virginia shows the same pattern. For the week ending November 8, Bright MLS reported the following for all residential listings (detached homes, townhouses and condos) in Alexandria City, Arlington, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Loudoun and Prince William combined: - **New listings:** 469, down 4.5% from 491 a year ago - **New purchase contracts:** 389, down 21.4% from 495 - **Active listings:** 5,069, up 41.9% from 3,572 New listings here are close to last year. Contracts are down by a fifth. Inventory is up by more than 40%. ## Inventory Depends on How Fast Buyers Are Buying Most housing reports focus on how many homes are for sale. The other half of the story is how quickly buyers are purchasing them. Imagine a neighborhood with ten homes for sale. During the week, three new homes are listed and five go under contract. Buyers are taking homes off the market faster than sellers are adding them. Now imagine the same ten homes and the same three new listings, but only one goes under contract. The number of new listings hasn't changed, and homes begin to accumulate. That is what both the national and local figures show. Sellers are listing at close to last year's pace in Northern Virginia, buyers are signing fewer contracts, and the unsold homes stack up. The pattern isn't the same in every jurisdiction: | Nov. 2–8 | New listings | Contracts | Active | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alexandria City | 35 −7.9% | 34 −5.6% | 456 +37.3% | | Arlington | 53 +10.4% | 24 −44.2% | 566 +28.1% | | Fairfax County | 204 +3.0% | 175 −12.5% | 2,095 +39.7% | | Fairfax City | 2 −66.7% | 5 −44.4% | 61 +45.2% | | Loudoun | 86 −21.8% | 78 −25.0% | 915 +56.1% | | Prince William | 89 −2.2% | 73 −29.1% | 976 +45.7% | *All residential listings in Bright MLS: detached homes, townhouses and condos. Change is compared with the same week last year. One week of data; small counts, such as Fairfax City's, move a lot from week to week.* Homes are also taking longer to go under contract. Median days to contract was 42 in Fairfax County (31 a year ago), 46 in Alexandria City (32), 37 in Loudoun (31) and 40 in Prince William (33). Arlington was the exception at 27 days, compared with 34 a year ago. ## Alexandria City: The Last Four Weeks Here is the ten-homes example with Alexandria City's actual numbers. Bright MLS data for detached homes and townhouses (no condos), October 18 to November 14, 2026: | Oct. 18–Nov. 14 | Detached | Townhouse | | --- | --- | --- | | New listings | 36 | 88 | | New contracts | 17 | 46 | | Active, Nov. 14 | 36 | 98 | | Weeks of supply | 8.5 | 8.5 | | Contracts after 22+ days | 8 of 17 | 26 of 46 | | Canceled, withdrawn, expired | 12 | 25 | | Closings | 12 | 28 | | Median sale ÷ original list | 97.2% | 99.2% | | Sold below original list | 66.7% | 53.6% | | Sales with a seller concession | 50.0% | 57.1% | | Median concession | 2.45% | 0.61% | | Price cut this week | 7 of 36 | 15 of 98 | About two new listings came on the market for every new contract. Weeks of supply is how long it would take to sell every home now for sale at the current pace of new contracts. Counts are small, especially for detached homes. ## Why Aren't More Homeowners Selling? A November 11 Realtor.com analysis looked at the cost of selling a home and buying another one. The typical homeowner with a mortgage pays about $1,332 a month in principal and interest, on a median rate of about 4%. Buying a median-priced home at the study's 7.32% rate would mean a payment of about $2,468. That's $1,136 more per month, about $13,600 a year, before property taxes, insurance or moving costs. Even at a 6% rate, the payment would rise by nearly 62%. The study also found that 77.5% of outstanding mortgages carry rates below 6%. Millions of homeowners hold mortgages they can't replace at today's rates. Even with substantial equity, selling and buying again may not make financial sense, so they stay put. Many would like to move. The cost of moving is what stops them. ## Not Every Seller Faces the Same Decision Not every homeowner is making the same financial calculation. Consider a family that bought several years ago with a 3% mortgage. They'd like something larger, but moving would mean giving up that rate and taking on a much higher payment. They may decide to wait. Now consider someone retiring and downsizing who has enough equity to buy the next home without a mortgage. Or a family selling a parent's home after a move to assisted living. Or an estate where the property has to be sold. Mortgage rates don't affect these sellers the same way. Their reasons, finances and timelines are different, and the market is made up of all of them. ## A Bigger Inventory Number Doesn't Always Mean More Competition Suppose there was one home for sale in your neighborhood last November, and today there are three. Inventory is up 200%, and there are still only three homes for sale. If eight qualified buyers are looking for homes like yours, that may still be a strong position for a seller. If there are twenty homes available and two buyers making offers, it's a different situation. The percentage change matters less than the relationship between available homes and the buyers competing for them. Not every listing competes with yours, either. A $1.5 million detached home in Alexandria isn't competing with a $700,000 townhouse in Springfield. Even within one neighborhood, condition, layout, lot and location make a substantial difference. The relevant question isn't how many homes are for sale in Northern Virginia. It's how many are competing for the same buyers as yours. ## What About Home Prices? Realtor.com's weekly report found the national median asking price down 1.2% from last year. Bright MLS reported the Washington, D.C., metro median list price at $561,995, down 3.0%. An asking price isn't a sale price, and a median moves with the mix of homes listed. The same Bright MLS week shows this. The median list price was up 19.7% in Alexandria City ($610,000, from $509,500 a year ago) and up 36.6% in Arlington ($850,000, from $622,450). In Fairfax County it was down 8.0% ($665,000, from $723,170). Home values in those places didn't change that much in a year. The homes listed that week did. A better test compares each home with its own asking price, so the mix doesn't move it. In Alexandria City over the past four weeks, the median detached home sold for 97.2% of its original list price and the median townhouse for 99.2%. What tells you more is what happens after a home comes on the market. Does it get showings? Do buyers make offers? How long does it take to go under contract? Are competing sellers cutting prices or pulling their homes off the market? One of those signals is up locally. In Alexandria City, 11.6% of active listings had a price reduction that week, compared with 7.2% a year ago. In Fairfax County it was 9.8%, compared with 8.4%. A seller can ask any price. Buyers decide whether they agree. ## What Does This Mean if You're Thinking About Selling? I wouldn't decide to sell a home in Northern Virginia based on an 8.3% national rise in inventory, or a 42% local one. I also wouldn't assume fewer new listings mean less competition. I'd want to know what's happening in the market your home would actually enter: - How many comparable homes are available today? - How many have gone under contract over the past several weeks? - How long are they taking to sell? - Are buyers choosing among a handful of properties, or do they have more options than they know what to do with? Those answers tell you more about your likely experience as a seller than any housing headline. After more than thirty years in Northern Virginia real estate, I've learned there isn't one housing market. There are hundreds of smaller ones, each with its own supply, demand and competition. Some homes sell quickly with multiple offers in a slowing market. Others struggle when the broader market looks strong. The difference usually comes down to understanding the competition and making good decisions before the home goes on the market. ## Is It Time? The question is whether selling makes sense for you, given your circumstances, your property and the market you'd be entering. Before deciding, let's look at the actual numbers for your home and your competition. You may find that now is a good time to sell, or that waiting makes more sense. Either way, you'll be deciding from the market your home is in, not from a headline. ### Sources - Realtor.com, Weekly Housing Trends, Week Ending November 7, 2026 - Realtor.com, High Housing Costs Keep Homeowners Locked In, November 11, 2026 - Bright MLS, Weekly Market Report, Week Ending November 8, 2026 *Based on information from Bright MLS for October 15 through November 14, 2026; data is reliable but not guaranteed. County and metro figures are from the Bright MLS Weekly Market Report for the week ending November 8, 2026, and cover all residential property types, including condos. Alexandria City four-week figures cover fee simple detached and townhouse/attached listings only (no condos). Year-over-year changes for the six jurisdictions combined were calculated from the county figures in that report. Realtor.com figures are national and are not measurements of Northern Virginia conditions. The mortgage-payment comparison is a modeled estimate, not the actual cost every homeowner would incur when moving.* [![More Homes for Sale. Fewer Buyers. What Does That Actually Mean for Northern Virginia Homeowners?](https://www.davidzadareky.com/hubfs/post_more-homes-fewer-buyers.png)](https://www.davidzadareky.com/insights/more-homes-for-sale.-fewer-buyers.-what-does-that-actually-mean-for-northern-virginia-homeowners) #### [More Homes for Sale. Fewer Buyers. 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